Ad Spend Forecasts Q2 2017: Cautious growth in 2017 to accelerate in 2018

This month, we look at the latest ad spend forecasts recently published by Zenith, Dentsu Aegis(Carat) and Magna Global. Here we provide you with a brief analysis of the findings, paying special attention of course, to Out-of-Home (OOH) and online Digital ad spend over the next couple of years.  All three reports mention that globally; conditions are set to improve in 2018 with major cyclical events such as FIFA World Cup or the Winter Olympics partly driving the ad expenditure.

Out-of-Home remains strong while Digital overtakes TV

Digital, according to Zenith forecasts 2016 to 2019, is the main driver of global ad spend growth, and TV and OOH advertising will be the second and third-largest contributors to growth.
Honing in on Out-of-Home, Magna Global forecasts show Out-of-Home remaining resilient in most markets, growing by an average 4% - in line with the previous eight years.
Dentsu Aegis forecasts, on the other hand, show a slightly more modest number for OOH growth, with 2.9% in 2017, and 3.2% in 2018. Market share however, is a steady 6.1% in 2018. Similarly, Zenith forecasts show a resilient 6.5% ad spend share in 2018.
Overall, all reports highlight that Digital overtakes TV for the first time. According to Magna Global, Digital will grow by 14% this year to become the #1 category globally. Interestingly, growth in Digital is almost entirely driven by mobile.

Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America bloom

Regarding regional growth, all the sources point to a moderate slowdown concentrated in the two main markets - the US and the UK. However, in the case of the US, per ZenithOptimedia shows it being the leading contributor to the global market over the next three years, making up in scale what it lacks in speed.
Looking at Dentsu Aegis figures, we see UK growth dipping from 6% to 4% in 2017, but bouncing back up to 5.9% in 2018.
Per Magna Global, the fastest-growing regions this year will be 1. Central & Eastern Europe 2. Latin America and 3. Asia-Pacific.
The ZenithOptimedia regional forecasts show that regarding growth, MENA is the underperformer, while the outperformers are Fast-track Asia* and Eastern Europe & Central Asia.

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Notes:

*Fast-track Asia: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam
Sources:
Zenith Ad Spend Forecast, June 2017
Dentsu Aegis Ad Spend Forecast, June 2017
Magna Global Ad Spend Forecast, June 2017