Adspend Forecast: Confidence for 2013 and 2014
The latest global adspend forecasts by ZenithOptimedia and Magna Global demonstrate a confidence in the advertising industry this year and next year. Growth rates for this year are forecast to be around 3%, while the 2014 figures are estimated at a higher level of between 5-6%.
Source: ZenithOptimedia June 2013, Magna Global June 2013
These estimated rates are in line with IMF's April prediction of GDP growths in 2013 (+3.3%) and 2014 (+4.0%). Magna believes that business growth in the more upbeat global economy will trigger adspend to increase "faster than GDP" in some markets. In other markets, the forecaster thinks marketers who have been previously cautious are likely to "switch from optimisation mode to expansion mode".
Source: ZenithOptimedia June 2013 *advertising in printed editions onlyBy Regions
Both forecasters predict that growth will be negative in Western Europe (in particular Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) this year. This stagnation is expected to be offset by Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America which are projected to be the fastest growing regions.
| Global Adspend Forecasts | 2013 vs.2012 | 2014 vs. 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| ZenithOptimedia - All Media | +3.4% | +5.0% |
| - Outdoor | +4.4% | +5.8% |
| Magna Global - All Media | +3.0% | +6.1% |
| - Outdoor | +2.9% | NA |
London, UK
By Media While Magna estimates Outdoor growth to be on par with All Media this year, Zenith forecasts that Outdoor adspend will increase faster than All Media this year and next year. In Q1 this year, Digital Outdoor in the UK took up 20% of the total Outdoor revenue in the country. This is up from 17% in Q1 last year, the year of the Olympics, demonstrating the growing popularity of the digital platform among advertisers. (Source: Outdoor Media Centre) The Internet remains the fastest growing medium, predicted by Zenith to gain 6% share by 2015. This is at the expense of Print which would lose by about the same level. Outdoor's share of the market is projected to remain constant at about 7% in 2015.| Adspend Share by Medium (%) | Year 2012 | Year 2015 |
|---|---|---|
| Outdoor | 6.8% | 6.9% |
| Television | 40.1% | 39.5% |
| Print* | 27.3% | 22.0% |
| Radio | 7.0% | 6.6% |
| Cinema | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Internet | 18.3% | 24.3% |
Shanghai Pudong Airport, China
Last year was the first time that China, one of the fastest growing ad market, experienced an adspend growth which was slower than its GDP. In the mid-term however, Magna thinks the Chinese ad market has the potential to grow faster than the economy due to domestic and international demand for limited media inventory. The forecaster also believes China will overtake Japan to become the 2nd largest media market worldwide by 2016. North America and Japan are both returning to growth slowly. In North America, Magna reports that consumer confidence is bolstered by the rising stock market, home prices and employment. Over in Japan, Magna thinks that the recent expansionist economic policy introduced by its Prime Minister will bring about the prospect of a more dynamic economy. According to Zenith, the top 5 countries projected to contribute more than half of the global expenditure between 2012 and 2015 are as follows:- USA
- China
- Argentina
- Indonesia
- Russia
Chicago, USA
Despite the continuing recession in the eurozone and political tensions in the Middle East, the forecasters believe there are sufficient signs of a recovering global economy to predict growth in the global adspend market this year and next year. Find out more about advertising expenditure and its unique role in the economy here.