Adspend Forecast: Sustained Growth in 2013 & 2014
The latest adspend forecasts from ZenithOptimedia and GroupM show optimism in the global advertising market this year and next year. The worldwide adspend growth for 2013 is estimated to be between 3-4% while stronger growth is predicted at 5% in 2014.
ZenithOptimedia believes that global adspend will benefit from upcoming major events such as the Winter Olympics in Sochi, the FIFA World Cup in Brazil and “continued steady growth” in Europe.
GroupM is comparatively more cautious about advertising growth as it thinks that global ad spending “remains vulnerable” with some Western European countries continuing to see advertising spend in their countries decrease year-on-year.
According to both forecasters, Global Outdoor adspend growth will out-pace All-Media in 2013 and 2014.
Source: ZenithOptimedia, Dec 2013 and GroupM, Winter 2013
By Regions
ZenithOptimedia has categorised their forecasts into regions of low, steady and rapid growth.
Low Growth – Mature Markets
The mature markets of Western Europe, North America and Japan are estimated to grow at an average rate of just 3% over the next 3 years. Even though these markets take up the lion’s share of global adspend currently, Zenith believes that growth is limited by a shrinking workforce and most of these markets are “struggling with debt and low innovation”.
Source: ZenithOptimedia, Dec 2013
Sony, JCDecaux - Russ Outdoor
GroupM forecasts that Global Outdoor adspend growth will out-pace All-Media growth including TV in 2013 and 2014.
Source: GroupM, Winter 2013
According to Zenith, Outdoor’s share of the worldwide adspend market will remain stable from now through to 2016. The forecaster also predicts that mobile advertising (all internet display, classified and search ads delivered to smartphones and tablets) will enjoy the greatest growth in its share of global adspend between 2013 to 2016.
Source: ZenithOptimedia, Dec 2013
| Global Adspend Forecast Year-on-Year | 2013 vs. 2012 | 2014 vs. 2013 |
| ZenithOptimedia
- All Media - Outdoor | +3.6% +3.7% | +5.3% +5.6% |
| GroupM
- All Media - Outdoor | +3.3% +4.0% | +4.6% +5.1% |
Shiseido, MCDecaux Japan
Steady but Slower Growth in BRICs Brazil, Russia, India and China have grown steadily in the last twenty years and now take up 14% of global adspend. Zenith thinks that with a relatively young workforce (median age of 31), combined with an improvement in infrastructure, productivity and adoption of technology, these markets are expected to grow at an average of 9.5% all through to 2016. This is a slower rate than their average growth of 16% over the past 10 years. Rapid Growth - Youthful Markets Zenith has identified 6 markets which are growing rapidly and have a young population: Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey. These markets currently account for only 7% of global adspend, but they are predicted to contribute double that amount (16%) of all advertising spend over the next 3 years. Their annual adspend growth rate from 2013 to 2016 is forecast at 15%.Mont Blanc Legend, JCDecaux Korea
Top Contributors to Global Adspend GroupM is particularly optimistic about China’s maturing ad market and its future growth, noting that the advertising share of the country’s GDP has been on par with the global average since 2008. The substantial percentage of China’s digital ad revenue (24%) in relation to its total adspend is comparable to the Western European average, yet another indicator of the market’s maturity. ZenithOptimedia predicts that the top 7 contributors to global advertising dollar in 2013 will retain their current positions in 2016. On the other hand, France and Canada (currently ranked 8th and 9th respectively) are forecast to be ousted by Russia and Indonesia by 2016.| Top 10 Contributors to Global Adspend | 2013 Adspend US$’million |
| 2016 Adspend Forecast US$’million |
| 1. USA | $166,905 | 1. USA | $190,269 |
| 2. Japan | $$52,838 | 2. Japan | $56,252 |
| 3. China | $40,948 | 3. China | $55,356 |
| 4. Germany | $23,184 | 4. Germany | $24,145 |
| 5. UK | $20,345 | 5. UK | $23,955 |
| 6. Brazil | $15,859 | 6. Brazil | $18,887 |
| 7. Australia | $13,072 | 7. Australia | $14,264 |
| 8. France | $12,145 | 8. South Korea | $13,795 |
| 9. Canada | $11,589 | 9. Russia | $13,385 |
| 10. South Korea | $10,612 | 10. Indonesia | $13,338 |
| Global Adspend Forecast Year-on-Year | 2013 vs. 2012 | 2014 vs. 2013 |
All Media | +3.3% | +4.6% |
Outdoor | +4.0% | +5.1% |
TV | +2.9% | +4.1% |
Newspaper | -4.2% | -1.8% |
Magazines | -2.6% | -0.7% |
Radio | +1.2% | +2.2% |
Cinema | +2.1% | +5.5% |
Internet (display only) | +10.0% | +9.3% |
| Share of Global Adspend By Medium | 2013 | 2016 Forecast |
Outdoor | 6.9% | 6.9% |
TV | 40.2% | 39.3% |
24.9% | 20.3% | |
Radio | 6.9% | 6.3% |
Cinema | 0.5% | 0.6% |
Desktop Internet | 17.9% | 18.9% |
Mobile Internet | 2.7% | 7.7% |